The above returns include trading and investment costs but not administration fees. Level 3: A city with an Aboriginal focus.

In 2018-19 Perth’s GDP grew by 0.1 per cent. Other than construction there is nothing else happening in Brisbane/GC.that realisation will kill the economy, … and even more property marketthis reintroduction of hard measures is the real killer. Recall that JobKeeper and JobSeeker are scheduled to terminate at the end of September.For the December quarter we are forecasting an extension to JobKeeper (for around a third of the current 3.3 million recipients) and a reduction in JobSeeker payments of around $300 – not the currently budgeted $550 per fortnight.With Melbourne showing a degree of “pent-up demand” we expect that Melbourne and regions (25% of the economy) will grow by 2.7% in the December quarter compared to 2% for the rest of the country.That implies overall GDP growth of 2.2% for the December quarter.Overall our original forecast of a 4% contraction in the Australian economy in 2020 has been downgraded to -4.2%, with a somewhat weaker September quarter to be followed by a stronger December quarter.As discussed the events in Melbourne highlight the risks to this scenario around the containment of the virus; other shutdowns; and the inevitable savage loss in confidence were that to occur.I’m more interested in the labour market impacts. Tax Rates for Melbourne - The Sales Tax Rate for Melbourne is 7.0%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics said it was the fastest quarterly contraction on record and ends a three-decade run of economic growth that was undented even by the global financial crisis. Following an unprecedented bushfire season and the challenges of the COVID-19 health pandemic, the NSW Productivity Commissioner released an issues paper for public response. Melbourne has seen the job market increase by 1.9% over the last year. After being the perennial underperformer economically, Adelaide has experienced a boom over the past three years. The city’s economic output was a hefty $418 billion in 2016-17 and that’s tipped to reach $565 billion a year in 2031.Melbourne has jumped 15 places since 2012 and performs especially well on the report’s “outlook” measure which identifies metros destined to become more prominent on the global stage.It is a marker of how strongly Australia’s two biggest cities are performing compared with international peers. The construction, real estate services and financial and insurance industries fell during 2018-19.
Accordingly, for Melbourne (and the other areas discussed above), the base from which to calculate the impact of the latest shutdown is still going to be quite weak.Say that the recovery through June was 1.5% (proxied by hours worked) then with the economy relapsing to “shutdown” pace again we can argue a 1.5% contraction over the next 4-6 weeks.So, if we look at the September quarter for Melbourne (and regions) – a contraction of 1.5% over the next six weeks is forecast to be followed by an expansion of 1.5% (equivalent to the reopening effect we assess for June) over the second half of the September quarter.That means that while we forecast that 75% of the national economy will grow by 1.5% in the September quarter the other 25%, centred on Melbourne, will stall.That reduces our growth forecast for Australia to 1.1% in the September quarter from 1.5%.The unknown variable will be the impact on national confidence of this unexpected development.Arguably, that will depend on whether there is a relatively quick outbreak in the virus elsewhere.Given that the original source of Victoria’s outbreak has been attributed to the management of overseas returnees, scrutiny across the country around the international borders and visitors will be intense.For the December quarter our base growth forecast is 2.0% contingent on no further significant shutdowns and the sustained reopening of Melbourne.The note earlier this week around the fiscal outlook we have factored in some constructive policy response. - The Income Tax Rate for Melbourne is 0.0%. After several years of trending upwards, Brisbane’s GDP growth slowed in 2018-19 to 2.6 per cent. I just hope someone will one day erect statues of our great leaders of the National Cabinet with the words: people who destroyed this country with their blind ideology, cowardice and personal interests. NSW Infrastructure Contributions Review paper: an opportunity for systematic reform Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans, believes that Melbourne’s six week lockdown will shave 0.2% from Australia’s 2020 GDP growth:The shutdown in Melbourne has altered our growth profile for the Australian economy and we have slightly lowered our annual forecast for 2020 from a contraction of 4.0% to -4.2%.We retain our forecast for growth in 2021 of 3.0% recognising that this shutdown will represent a permanent loss of activity out to end 2021, in the order of $3bn.We have been forecasting 1.5% growth for GDP for the September quarter to be followed by 2% in the December quarter.Following the 0.3% contraction in the March quarter and our forecast 7% contraction in the June quarter we have expected a 4% contraction in GDP over 2020.Yesterday the Victorian Premier announced a full shutdown of greater Melbourne for six weeks in response to the recent wave of coronavirus infections.This area covers around 20% (by population) of the Australian economy.


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